Must. Have.

I sometimes wonder: Am I more of a Sam Malone-kind of guy, or am I more Cliff Clavin-esque? Either way, I'll need one of these...

Another reason why all space within a five-foot radius of me is Bush Country

So apparently, Bush's approval ratings are starting to climb back up. Some may tell you that it's because of the Iraq surge starting to show some positive results, but those folks have got it all wrong, IMHO. Personally, I chalk the uptick to Bush's recent strong stand on an issue that has been weighing heavily on (and perhaps even threatening) the minds of many Americans. Video of the press conference is below, detailed survey analysis comes after the jump.

First-ever boring Middle East post

Warning: This is a serious post, for once.

I got an interesting email from a private global intelligence firm called Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (STRATFOR, for short). I subscribe to a few of their free weekly email reports -- you should too, if you're interested in that sort of thing -- and they're always well worth the read.

The one I got today was a report (reprinted* below the jump) called "The Geopolitics of the Palestinians", and the main thrust of it was that Egypt is the player to watch in the Israeli-Palestinian and Hamas-Fatah conflicts. There's a bunch of interesting information there, and I'd encourage you to read the whole thing, but the bit that jumped out at me was the following (my emphases):

... [B]y increasing attacks now, Hamas -- which always has been able to deny responsibility for these incidents -- would lose the element of deniability. Having taken control of Gaza, regardless of whether it carries out attacks, it would have failed to prevent them. Hamas' leadership is more vulnerable now than ever before.

The Israelis could be convinced to make political concessions in shaping a Palestinian state. For example, they might concede more land or more autonomy in order to stop the attacks. That might have been attractive to Fatah, but Hamas explicitly rejects the existence of Israel and therefore gives the Israelis no reason to make concessions. That means that while attacks might be psychologically satisfying to Hamas, they would be substantially less effective than the attacks that were carried out while Fatah was driving the negotiations. Bargaining with Hamas gets Israel nothing.

One of the uses of terrorism is to trigger an Israeli response, which in turn can be used to drive a wedge between Israel and the West. Fatah has been historically skillful at using the cycle of violence to its political advantage. Hamas, however, is handicapped in two ways: First, its position on Israel is perceived as much less reasonable than Fatah's. Second, Hamas is increasingly being viewed as a jihadist movement, and, as such, its strength threatens European and U.S. interests.

When I read that, I recalled an article on Drudge where former President Jimmy Carter thinks we should stop giving preferential treatment to Fatah over Hamas.

Which left me wondering, "Why on earth wouldn't he want us to favor Fatah over Hamas?" Consider:

• According to STRATFOR, Hamas' control of Gaza makes it more costly for them if anyone attacks Israel from Gaza. This weakens Hamas' bargaining position, since less incentive for Hamas to attack (or permit attacks) means less reason for Israel to bargain with them.
• Also according to STRATFOR, Israel has no reason to bargain with Hamas even if Hamas wasn't weaker today than it was yesterday, since Hamas is ideologically opposed to any outcome short of the complete elimination of Israel. Fatah, on the other hand, could possibly be a productive negotiation partner (when compared to Hamas, anyway).
• I may not have all the pertinent information on this, but my impression is that the only reason the US even gives Hamas a second thought is because it is a threat to Israel. If Israel has no reason to be nicer to Hamas than to Fatah, why should we?
• The hard-line "jihadist" image of Hamas gives both Israel and the US pretty a pretty solid reason not to be nice to Hamas at all.

In short:

• Hamas was never all that useful a bargaining partner to begin with.


• They are less useful now.


• There are good reasons not to bargain with them.


• The US, the Israelis, and the Palestinians are more likely to see results from Israel working with Fatah instead of Hamas.

I don't know what's going into Pres. Carter's calculations, but if he's adding up the points I just mentioned and arrives at "we should stop favoring Fatah over Hamas", there's something wrong with his calculator. Is he trying to prolong the conflict?

Not Really That Guy

So a scary thing happened to me a minute ago. I was reading this article, and when I got to the bottom, I read this line:

Irony: The period when he made this decision, early 2003, was to prove the post-bubble low point for Apple stock. It was just before it began its monumental run.

My first thought? "Dude, that is NOT IRONY!"

My second thought was less a thought, per se, and more of a general feeling of shame at realizing that I, too, am capable of being a language snob.

(My third thought was that it IS a little like rain on your wedding day, FWIW.)

Oh, and apparently Steve Jobs makes lousy business decisions. Who knew?

Look! Up in the sky! It's a ... pig?

If you had told me a couple of weeks ago that I would watch a debate between Al Sharpton and Christopher Hitchens on any topic and find myself rooting for Sharpton, I would have been hard-pressed to guess the topic. Check it out.

Titles of Papers to Write After I Have Tenure, Part I

A Formal Model of the Modern Major-General

Those who do not learn from history ...

I sure hope the terrorists don't think to try this one...

Wow, this has been a long time coming!

So, it's been a while since I posted anything. And a lot has happened since that time. And maybe those last two sentences are connected a little bit. By way of a quick run-down, since my last post I have:

• Visited my family in Alaska (and along those lines, met my niece in Alaska)
• Brought my bicycle back from Anchorage, and started regularly biking to school
• Presented my terrorism paper at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Philadelphia
• Spent two weeks in Russia, finally
• Got a fancy new Xbox 360!
• Learned that my twin brother will be a dad
• Learned that my good buddy Sunil will be a dad, too

I'll discuss a few of these (notably the Alaska and Russia trips, and in all likelihood the Xbox as well) in a little more depth in later entries. There are a few other things too which I have not listed here but which I will no doubt blather on about at length, given the slightest provocation. (Fair warning.) I am also still working on a redesign for the site, and I think I have a pretty good idea of what I want to do (after several false starts), so if I get a chance to work on it that will be coming as well.

Ouch

For those of you who weren't following the FIFA World Cup (I was, strangely enough), you should be told that Italy won in the finals, but not before the French captain Zinedine Zidane got a red card for doing this:

Looks nasty, huh? I cringed a little when I saw it, but I wondered whether it really warranted getting ejected until I saw the instant replay:

I guess I can see a red card for that, maybe.

Why I Can't Wait to be a Parent, Part 1

Right here.