After President Bush's Rose Garden announcement, Rasmussen Reports conducted a snap poll to take the pulse (so to speak) of the American public on this rotting, shambling issue, and I happened to get my hands on the initial analysis.

------

1. The candidate lost amid a furor over whether his service in combat was unduly shortened after the candidate received a discharge following his third Purple Heart medal. Once it was revealed that none of the candidate's injuries were to his head, nor did any prevent ambulation, many members of his community were forced to concede that had they received similar injuries, in all likelihood they would not have even noticed the injuries, much less sought an early discharge due to them.

2. A large number of Zombic-Americans were turned away from the polls during the 2004 election, due to their penchant for biting other voters while waiting for booths; this was found to violate long-standing rules on electioneering at polling-places.

I got an interesting email from a private global intelligence firm called Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (STRATFOR, for short). I subscribe to a few of their free weekly email reports -- you should too, if you're interested in that sort of thing -- and they're always well worth the read.

The one I got today was a report (reprinted* below the jump) called "The Geopolitics of the Palestinians", and the main thrust of it was that Egypt is the player to watch in the Israeli-Palestinian and Hamas-Fatah conflicts. There's a bunch of interesting information there, and I'd encourage you to read the whole thing, but the bit that jumped out at me was the following (my emphases):

... [B]y increasing attacks now, Hamas -- which always has been able to deny responsibility for these incidents -- would lose the element of deniability. Having taken control of Gaza, regardless of whether it carries out attacks, it would have failed to prevent them. Hamas' leadership is more vulnerable now than ever before.

The Israelis could be convinced to make political concessions in shaping a Palestinian state. For example, they might concede more land or more autonomy in order to stop the attacks. That might have been attractive to Fatah, but Hamas explicitly rejects the existence of Israel and therefore gives the Israelis no reason to make concessions. That means that while attacks might be psychologically satisfying to Hamas, they would be substantially less effective than the attacks that were carried out while Fatah was driving the negotiations. Bargaining with Hamas gets Israel nothing.

One of the uses of terrorism is to trigger an Israeli response, which in turn can be used to drive a wedge between Israel and the West. Fatah has been historically skillful at using the cycle of violence to its political advantage. Hamas, however, is handicapped in two ways: First, its position on Israel is perceived as much less reasonable than Fatah's. Second, Hamas is increasingly being viewed as a jihadist movement, and, as such, its strength threatens European and U.S. interests.

When I read that, I recalled an article on Drudge where former President Jimmy Carter thinks we should stop giving preferential treatment to Fatah over Hamas.

Which left me wondering, "Why on earth wouldn't he want us to favor Fatah over Hamas?" Consider:

• According to STRATFOR, Hamas' control of Gaza makes it more costly for them if anyone attacks Israel from Gaza. This weakens Hamas' bargaining position, since less incentive for Hamas to attack (or permit attacks) means less reason for Israel to bargain with them.
• Also according to STRATFOR, Israel has no reason to bargain with Hamas even if Hamas wasn't weaker today than it was yesterday, since Hamas is ideologically opposed to any outcome short of the complete elimination of Israel. Fatah, on the other hand, could possibly be a productive negotiation partner (when compared to Hamas, anyway).
• I may not have all the pertinent information on this, but my impression is that the only reason the US even gives Hamas a second thought is because it is a threat to Israel. If Israel has no reason to be nicer to Hamas than to Fatah, why should we?
• The hard-line "jihadist" image of Hamas gives both Israel and the US pretty a pretty solid reason not to be nice to Hamas at all.

In short:

• Hamas was never all that useful a bargaining partner to begin with.


• They are less useful now.


• There are good reasons not to bargain with them.


• The US, the Israelis, and the Palestinians are more likely to see results from Israel working with Fatah instead of Hamas.

I don't know what's going into Pres. Carter's calculations, but if he's adding up the points I just mentioned and arrives at "we should stop favoring Fatah over Hamas", there's something wrong with his calculator. Is he trying to prolong the conflict?

THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE PALESTINIANS
By George Friedman

Last week, an important thing happened in the Middle East. Hamas, a radical Islamist political group, forcibly seized control of Gaza from rival Fatah, an essentially secular Palestinian group. The West Bank, meanwhile, remains more or less under the control of Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian National Authority in that region. Therefore, for the first time, the two distinct Palestinian territories -- the Gaza Strip and the West Bank -- no longer are under a single Palestinian authority.

Hamas has been increasing its influence among the Palestinians for years, and it got a major boost by winning the most recent election. It now has claimed exclusive control over Gaza, its historical stronghold and power base. It is not clear whether Hamas will try to take control of the West Bank as well, or whether it would succeed if it did make such a play. The West Bank is a different region with a very different dynamic. What is certain, for the moment at least, is that these regions are divided under two factions, and therefore have the potential to become two different Palestinian states.

In a way, this makes more sense than the previous arrangement. The West Bank and the Gaza Strip are physically separated from one another by Israel. Travel from one part of the Palestinian territories to the other relies on Israel's willingness to permit it -- which is not always forthcoming. As a result, the Palestinian territories are divided into two areas that have limited contact.

The war between the Philistines and the Hebrews is described in the books of Samuel. The Philistines controlled the coastal lowlands of the Levant, the east coast of the Mediterranean. They had advanced technologies, such as the ability to smelt bronze, and they conducted international trade up and down the Levant and within the eastern Mediterranean. The Hebrews, unable to engage the Philistines in direct combat, retreated into the hills to the east of the coast, in Judea, the area now called the West Bank.

The Philistines were part of a geographical entity that ran from Gaza north to Turkey. The Hebrews were part of the interior that connected north to Syria, south into the Arabian deserts and east across the Jordan. The Philistines were unable to pursue the Hebrews in the interior, and the Hebrews -- until David -- were unable to dislodge the Philistines from the coast. Two distinct entities existed.

Today, Gaza is tied to the coastal system, which Israel and Lebanon now occupy. Gaza is the link between the Levantine coast and Egypt. The West Bank is not a coastal entity but a region whose ties are to the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan and Syria. The point is that Gaza and the West Bank are very distinct geographical entities that see the world in very different ways.

Gaza, its links to the north cut by the Israelis, historically has been oriented toward the Egyptians, who occupied the region until 1967. The Egyptians influenced the region by creating the Palestine Liberation Organization, while Egypt's dissident Muslim Brotherhood helped influence the creation of Hamas in 1987. The West Bank, part of Jordan until 1967, is larger and more complex in its social organization, and it really represented the center of gravity of Palestinian nationalism under Fatah. Gaza and the West Bank were always separate entities, and the recent action by Hamas has driven home that point.

Hamas' victory in Gaza means much more to the Palestinians and Egyptians than it does to the Israelis -- at least in the shorter term. The fear in Israel now is that Gaza, under Hamas, will become more aggressive in carrying out terrorist attacks in Israel. Hamas certainly has an ideology that argues for this, and it is altogether possible that the group will become more antagonistic. However, it appears to us that Hamas already was capable of carrying out as many attacks as it wished before taking complete control. Moreover, by increasing attacks now, Hamas -- which always has been able to deny responsibility for these incidents -- would lose the element of deniability. Having taken control of Gaza, regardless of whether it carries out attacks, it would have failed to prevent them. Hamas' leadership is more vulnerable now than ever before.

Let's consider the strategic position of the Palestinians. Their primary weapon against Israel remains what it always has been: random attacks against civilian targets designed to destabilize Israel. The problem with this strategy is obvious. Using terrorism against Americans in Iraq is potentially effective as a strategy. If the Americans cannot stand the level of casualties being imposed, they have the option of leaving Iraq. Although leaving might pose serious problems to U.S. regional and global interests, it would not affect the continued existence of the United States. Therefore, the insurgents potentially could find a threshold that would force the United States to fold.

The Israelis cannot leave Israel. Assume for the moment that the Palestinians could impose 1,000 civilian casualties a year. There are about 5 million Jews in Israel. That would be about 0.02 percent casualties. The Israelis are not going to leave Israel at that casualty rate, or at a rate a thousand times greater. Unlike the Americans, for whom Iraq is a subsidiary interest, Israel is Israel's central interest. Israel is not going to capitulate to the Palestinians over terrorism attacks.

The Israelis could be convinced to make political concessions in shaping a Palestinian state. For example, they might concede more land or more autonomy in order to stop the attacks. That might have been attractive to Fatah, but Hamas explicitly rejects the existence of Israel and therefore gives the Israelis no reason to make concessions. That means that while attacks might be psychologically satisfying to Hamas, they would be substantially less effective than the attacks that were carried out while Fatah was driving the negotiations. Bargaining with Hamas gets Israel nothing.

One of the uses of terrorism is to trigger an Israeli response, which in turn can be used to drive a wedge between Israel and the West. Fatah has been historically skillful at using the cycle of violence to its political advantage. Hamas, however, is handicapped in two ways: First, its position on Israel is perceived as much less reasonable than Fatah's. Second, Hamas is increasingly being viewed as a jihadist movement, and, as such, its strength threatens European and U.S. interests.

Although Israel does not want terrorist attacks, such attacks do not represent a threat to the survival of the state. To be cold-blooded, they are an irritant, not a strategic threat. The only thing that could threaten the survival of Israel, apart from a nuclear barrage, would be a shift in position of neighboring states. Right now, Israel has peace treaties with both Egypt and Jordan, and an adequately working relationship with Syria. With Egypt and Jordan out of the game, Syria does not represent a threat. Israel is strategically secure.

The single most important neighbor Israel has is Egypt. When energized, it is the center of gravity of the Arab world. Under former President Gamal Abdul Nasser, Egypt drove Arab hostility to Israel. Once Anwar Sadat reversed Nasser's strategy on Israel, the Jewish state was basically secure. Other Arab nations could not threaten it unless Egypt was part of the equation. And for nearly 30 years, Egypt has not been part of the equation. But if Egypt were to reverse its position, Israel would, over time, find itself much less comfortable. Though Saudi Arabia has recently overshadowed Egypt's role in the Arab world, the Egyptians can always opt back into a strong leadership position and use their strength to threaten Israel. This becomes especially important as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's health fails and questions are raised about whether his successors will be able to maintain control of the country while the Muslim Brotherhood spearheads a campaign to demand political reform.

As we have said, Gaza is part of the Mediterranean coastal system. Egypt controlled Gaza until 1967 and retained influence there afterward, but not in the West Bank. Hamas also was influenced by Egypt, but not by Mubarak's government. Hamas was an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which the Mubarak regime has done a fairly good job of containing, primarily through force. But there also is a significant paradox in Hamas' relations with Egypt. The Mubarak regime, particularly through its intelligence chief (and prospective Mubarak successor) Omar Suleiman, has good working relations with Hamas, despite being tough on the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is the threat to Israel. Hamas has ties to Egypt and resonates with Egyptians, as well as with Saudis. Its members are religious Sunnis. If the creation of an Islamist Palestinian state in Gaza succeeds, the most important blowback might be in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood -- which is currently lying very low -- could be rekindled. Mubarak is growing old, and he hopes to be succeeded by his son. The credibility of the regime is limited, to say the least.

Hamas is unlikely to take over the West Bank -- and, even if it did, it still would make no strategic difference. Increased terrorist attacks against Israel's population would achieve less than the attacks that occurred while Fatah was negotiating. They could happen, but they would lead nowhere. Hamas' long-term strategy -- indeed, the only hope of the Palestinians who not prepared to accept a compromise with Israel -- is for Egypt to change its tune toward Israel, which could very well involve energizing Islamist forces in Egypt and bringing about the fall of the Mubarak regime. That is the key to any solution for Hamas.

Although many are focusing on the rise of Iran's influence in Gaza, putting aside the rhetoric, Iran is a minor player in the Israeli-Palestinian equation. Even Syria, despite hosting Hamas' exiled leadership, carries little weight when it comes to posing a strategic threat to Israel. But Egypt carries enormous weight. If an Islamist rising occurred in Egypt and a regime was installed that could energize the Egyptian public against Israel, then that would reflect a strategic threat to the survival of the Israeli state. It would not be an immediate threat -- it would take a generation to turn Egypt into a military power -- but it would ultimately represent a threat.

Only a disciplined and hostile Egypt could serve as the cornerstone of an anti-Israel coalition. Hamas, by asserting itself in Gaza -- especially if it can resist the Israeli army -- could strike the chord in Egypt that Fatah has been unable to strike for almost 30 years.

That is the importance of the creation of a separate Gaza entity; it complicates Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and probably makes them impossible. And this in and of itself works in Israel's favor, since it has no need to even entertain negotiations with the Palestinians as long as the Palestinians continue dividing themselves. If Hamas were to make significant inroads in the West Bank, it would make things more difficult for Israel, as well as for Jordan. But with or without the West Bank, Hamas has the potential -- not the certainty, just the potential -- to reach west along the Mediterranean coast and influence events in Egypt. And that is the key for Hamas.

There are probably a dozen reasons why Hamas made the move it did, most of them trivial and limited to local problems. But the strategic consequence of an independent, Islamist Gaza is that it can act both as a symbol and as a catalyst for change in Egypt, something that was difficult as long as Hamas was entangled with the West Bank. This probably was not planned, but it is certainly the most important consequence -- intended or not -- of the Gaza affair.

Two things must be monitored: first, whether there is reconciliation between Gaza and the West Bank and, if so, on what sort of terms; second, what the Egyptian Islamists led by the Muslim Brotherhood do now that Hamas, their own creation, has taken control of Gaza, a region once controlled by the Egyptians.

Egypt is the place to watch.

Contact Us
Analysis Comments - analysis@stratfor.com
Customer Service, Access, Account Issues - service@stratfor.com

Was this forwarded to you? Sign up to start receiving your own copy – it’s always thought-provoking, insightful and free.
Go to https://www.stratfor.com/subscriptions/free-weekly-intelligence-reports.php to register

BE OUR GUEST FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK
Free Sneak Peek into Stratfor.com's Members-Only Area
Step inside Stratfor Premium today with a 7-day Guest Pass. You'll get daily email briefs and have complimentary 24/7 access to:
• Up-to-the-Minute Situation Reports
• In-depth Analyses
• Terrorism Intelligence Briefs
• Exclusive Special Reports and Forecasts
• And much more.
Click here to activate!

Distribution and Reprints
This report may be distributed or republished with attribution to Strategic Forecasting, Inc. at www.stratfor.com. For media requests, partnership opportunities, or commercial distribution or republication, please contact pr@stratfor.com.

Irony: The period when he made this decision, early 2003, was to prove the post-bubble low point for Apple stock. It was just before it began its monumental run.

My first thought? "Dude, that is NOT IRONY!"

My second thought was less a thought, per se, and more of a general feeling of shame at realizing that I, too, am capable of being a language snob.

(My third thought was that it IS a little like rain on your wedding day, FWIW.)

Oh, and apparently Steve Jobs makes lousy business decisions. Who knew?

• Visited my family in Alaska (and along those lines, met my niece in Alaska)
• Brought my bicycle back from Anchorage, and started regularly biking to school
• Presented my terrorism paper at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Philadelphia
• Spent two weeks in Russia, finally
• Got a fancy new Xbox 360!
• Learned that my twin brother will be a dad
• Learned that my good buddy Sunil will be a dad, too

I'll discuss a few of these (notably the Alaska and Russia trips, and in all likelihood the Xbox as well) in a little more depth in later entries. There are a few other things too which I have not listed here but which I will no doubt blather on about at length, given the slightest provocation. (Fair warning.) I am also still working on a redesign for the site, and I think I have a pretty good idea of what I want to do (after several false starts), so if I get a chance to work on it that will be coming as well.

Looks nasty, huh? I cringed a little when I saw it, but I wondered whether it really warranted getting ejected until I saw the instant replay:

I guess I can see a red card for that, maybe.

I'm still trying to put together a workable site redesign, so please bear with me. In the meantime, I have encountered some awesomeness, and I thought I should pass it along. Enjoy!

I'd like to go to that zoo someday...

Thanks for all of your support, especially Amy.

Now, if I could just come up with a good topic....

For more information on my new constant companion and a list of all the entertaining symptoms I'm soon to enjoy, check out the WikiPedia entry.

Unfortunately, kids' books today are crap. Sorry, but it's true. It's gotten to the point where even celebrities look at children's books and think "I could do better than that."

It is into this wasteland that Hillsdale alum and fellow Baw Beeseian Aaron Zenz boldly strides, colored pencils in hand. His contribution is entitled A Discourse on the Behavior and Study of Hiccupotami, or something along those lines. Buy it here. Amy and I bought five to give as gifts, so if you are one of the expecting or post-expecting folks mentioned above, well, you've been warned.

PS. The cast bios at the end of the book are hilarious. Every children's book author should adopt this practice.